When it comes to casino games, the roulette wheel is among the most iconic imaginable, captivating novice players and experienced high rollers alike. However, many have wondered whether the roulette wheel’s outcome can be predicted with any degree of accuracy.
In this article, we’ll take a closer look at this line of enquiry and explore the different approaches to predicting the outcome of roulette wheels, including scientific methods, statistical models and anecdotal beliefs. From mechanical biases to AI-based systems, we’ll aim to separate the facts from the fiction and give you as clear an answer as possible.
How A Roulette Wheel Works
Roulette wheels are relatively simple, although there are a couple of regional variations that you should be aware of. When it comes to differences, the main thing to remember is that the European tables don’t have a 00 pocket, meaning that there are only 37 pockets in total, as opposed to American wheels which have 38. However, the main principle is the same, and the ball is still spun in the opposite direction to the table.
There are a many different bets that players can place on the roulette wheel, including inside bets, such as landing on a specific number or being between a cluster of close numbers on the tablet, and outside bets, which are generally much broader and can include the ball landing on a black pocket or an even number, which is why they generally pay less.
The logic behind roulette wheels
In simple terms, each roulette wheel spin is independent, and the previous round has no impact on any future spins. This means that no matter how long it’s been since it has appeared, no number can ever be considered more likely to come up next. This theory is often referred to as the Gambler’s Fallacy.
While this lack of bias is easy to check in real-world casinos as they have frequently calibrated wheels and perfectly weighted balls, there’s less transparency when it comes to online casinos, which is why they’re regularly audited to ensure fairness. Online casinos use random number generators (RNGs) to simulate unpredictability, ensuring that there is no increased chance of a number coming up because it hasn’t done so for a disproportionately long time.
Attempts To Predict The Wheel
There have been a few attempts previously to understand the math behind roulette wheels, while it seems simple when it comes to predictability and randomness, the allure of the Gambler’s Fallacy remains. Joseph Jagger is known for exploiting a rigged wheel in Monte Carlo in the 1870s while Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo used computer modelling in the 1992 to try and spot statistical deviations.
Attempting to predict the outcome beforehand is almost certainly an exercise in futility; however, it may be possible to make a more accurate prediction once the wheel has been spun. Wheel clocking involves timing the ball and wheel independently, although this is illegal in many casinos. Visual ballistics, on the other hand, involves players using visuals to try to estimate where the ball might land.
It’s important to include that while some of these methods can be beneficial, they require players to be in the same room as the table, despite them not being allowed by a vast majority of institutions. What’s more, the time it takes to try and make an in-play prediction can result in the player not having enough time to place their bet, making it entirely pointless.
The Role Of Payouts And Probability
Understanding how roulette payouts are calculated is complex and can vary depending on the type of bet played, but in simple terms, a straight-up bet of predicting one number has 37 to 1 odds. This is because, while American tables have 38 pockets including zero and double zero, the probability is 38 to 1, but casinos will only pay for 37 to 1. This creates a shortage of one unit and provides the house with an added edge.
Despite roulette having the chance of paying out huge amounts of money for successful bets, especially for those that are very specific, the slightly slanted odds ensure that the house always has an edge over the player, making it a game that’s unlikely to yield sustainable profits, despite any initial success.
Common Misconceptions And Betting Systems
There are many popular yet still flawed strategies when it comes to betting, with the Martingale System being among the most popular, which involves doubling the wager after each loss. However, each of these strategies has flaws and there is no sure-fire way to recover your money other than relying on luck.
Many of these systems rely on false assumptions and a poor understanding of how patterns and randomness work. They also don’t account for the house always having an edge, which means that no matter how random these games might be, the house still has the odds in its favor.
Final Verdict
While it’s possible for players to rig games and exploit weaknesses in the systems employed by casinos, there’s no definitive way to predict the outcome of the roulette wheel with any degree of accuracy.
Modern technology has made this much harder, and while players are rightfully concerned about the lack of transparency associated with computer-based roulette wheels, these online games are regularly audited to ensure fairness and keep this skepticism at bay.